Notice of Revision:Quarterly retail e-commerce estimates were revised based on the resultsof the 2007 Annual Retail Trade Survey. Not adjusted and adjustedestimates were revised for fourth quarter 1999 through fourth quarter2008.
TheCensus Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that theestimate of U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the first quarter of 2009,adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes, was $31.7billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (±1.1%)* from the fourth quarter of2008. Total retail sales for the first quarter of 2009 were estimatedat $909.6 billion, a decrease of 1.8 percent (±0.4%) from the fourthquarter of 2008. The first quarter 2009 e commerce estimate decreased5.4 percent (±2.5%) from the first quarter of 2008 while total retailsales decreased 10.2 percent (±0.4%) in the same period. E-commercesales in the first quarter of 2009 accounted for 3.5 percent of totalsales.
On a not adjusted basis, the estimate of U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the first quarter of 2009 totaled $30.2 billion, a decrease of 17.7 percent (±1.1%) from the fourth quarter of 2008. The first quarter 2009 e-commerce estimate decreased 5.7 percent (±2.5%) from the first quarter of 2008 while total retail sales decreased 11.6 (±0.5%) in the same period. E-commerce sales in the first quarter of 2009 accounted for 3.6 percent of total sales.
Estimated Quarterly U.S. Retail E-commerce Sales as a Percent of Total Quarterly Retail Sales:
4th Quarter 1999–1st Quarter 2009
4th Quarter 1999–1st Quarter 2009
Percent of Total
The Quarterly Retail E-Commerce sales estimate for the second quarter of 2009 is scheduled for release on August 17, 2009 at 10:00 A.M. EDT.
For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/ecomm.html>. For additional information about Census Bureau e-business measurement programs and plans visit <http://www.census.gov/estats>.
* The 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
Table 1. Estimated Quarterly U.S. Retail Sales: Total and E-commerce1
(Estimates are based on data from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey and administrative records.)
(p) Preliminary estimate. (r) Revised estimate.
1E-commerce sales are sales of goods and services where an order is placed by the buyer or price and terms of sale are negotiated over an Internet, extranet, Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) network, electronic mail, or other online system. Payment may or may not be made online.
2Estimates are adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes. Total sales esimates are also adjusted for trading-day differences and moving holidays.
Note: Table 2 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. For information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions, see www.census.gov/mrts/www/nrely.html.
Table 2. Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability for Quarterly U.S. Retail Sales Estimates: Total and E-commerce
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey.)
(p) Preliminary estimate. (r) Revised estimate. (Z) Estimate is less than 0.05%.
Note: Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on data not adjusted for seasonal variation, trading-day differences, ormoving holidays, and are used to make confidence statements about both adjusted and not adjusted estimates. For information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions, see www.census.gov/mrts/nrely.html.
Table 3. Estimated Quarterly U.S. Retail Sales (Adjusted1): Total and E-commerce2
(Estimates are based on data from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey and administrative records.)
NA Not Available. (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised
1Estimatesare adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes. Totalsales estimates are also adjusted for trading-day differences andmoving holidays.
2E-commerce sales are sales of goods and services where an order is placed by the buyer or price and terms of sale are negotiated over an Internet, extranet, Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) network, electronic mail, or other online system. Payment may or may not be made online.
Note: For information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, sample design, and definitions, see www.census.gov/mrts/www/nrely.html.
Table 4. Estimated Quarterly U.S. Retail Sales (Not Adjusted): Total and E-commerce1
(Estimates are based on data from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey and administrative records.)
NA Not Available. (p) Preliminary.
1E-commerce sales are sales of goods and services where an order is placed by the buyer or price and terms of sale are negotiated over an Internet, extranet, Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) network, electronic mail, or other online system. Payment may or may not be made online.
Note: For information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions, see www.census.gov/mrts/www/nrely.html.
Survey Description
Retail e-commerce sales are estimated from the same sample used for the Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) to estimate preliminary and final U.S. retail sales. Advance U.S. retail sales are estimated from a subsample of the MRTS sample that is not of adequate size to measure changes in retail e-commerce sales.
A stratified simple random sampling method is used to select approximately 12,500 retail firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over two million retail firms. The MRTS sample is probability based and represents all employer firms engaged in retail activities as defined by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Coverage includes all retailers whether or not they are engaged in e-commerce. Online travel services, financial brokers and dealers, and ticket sales agencies are not classified as retail and are not included in either the total retail or retail e-commerce sales estimates. Nonemployers are represented in the estimates through benchmarking to prior annual survey estimates that include nonemployer sales based on administrative records. E-commerce sales are included in the total monthly sales estimates.
The MRTS sample is updated on an ongoing basis to account for new retail employer businesses (including those selling via the Internet), business deaths, and other changes to the retail business universe. Firms are asked each month to report e-commerce sales separately. For each month of the quarter, data for nonresponding sampling units are imputed from responding sampling units falling within the same kind of business and sales size category. Responding firms account for approximately 85 percent of the e-commerce sales estimate and about 80 percent of the estimate of U.S. retail sales for any quarter.
For each month of the quarter, estimates are obtained by summing weighted sales (either reported or imputed). The monthly estimates are benchmarked to prior annual survey estimates. Estimates for the quarter are obtained by summing the monthly benchmarked estimates. The estimate for the most recent quarter is a preliminary estimate. Therefore, the estimate is subject to revision. Data users who create their own estimates using data from this report should should cite the Census Bureau as the source of the input data only.
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